As Snowden disappears into Russia, what will the U.S. do next?

Following more than a month of political uncertainty, Edward Snowden tiptoed out of Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport on Thursday, but his whereabouts and destination remain unknown. 

John Colarusso, a professor in the departments of Anthropology and Linguistics & Languages, is an expert in Russian linguistics and politics with a particular interest in the Caucasus region. He has spent more than two decades advising policy makers in Moscow, Washington, Ottawa and the Caucasus. Read below to see his commentary on the Snowden situation. 

For readers who are new to the story, who is Edward Snowden and why is he on the run from U.S. authorities? 

Edward Snowden was an employee of Booz Allen Hamilton, a private company that performed security work for the National Security Agency. He revealed the existence of two programs for monitoring domestic communications: Prism (scrutiny of phone traffic), and most recently XKeyscore (scrutiny of web traffic). As an undereducated but idealistic young man, he was bothered by both of these. Both constitute breaches of American law, because both compromise privacy without the requisite declaration of war or consequent legal specification of an enemy.

If Snowden had been a bit more sophisticated, he would perhaps have persuaded friends or the media to initiate a campaign to question the issue of domestic surveillance. Such an effort would, however, have been slow to bear fruit. I think his dramatic gesture is intended to bring quick results.

Why has Russia offered to grant him asylum for one year? 

My guess is that this is a humanitarian gesture at the level of Russian domestic politics. At the security level, they could  have gained all they wished to know without granting him asylum. Clearly Snowden was a problem for Russia. Apparently he never intended to seek asylum in Russia, but by cancelling his passport when it did the U.S. government effectively stranded him there. Putin has stated that he does not want Snowden to damage the interests of Russia’s “American partner,” and that Snowden is not as important as the relation between Russia and the United States. The U.S. seems not to share Putin’s opinion.

I know of no previous instance of temporary asylum. My guess is that this asylum is literally a temporary solution, as stated, and that Russia will seek to work out with the U.S. some sort of resolution of the Snowden problem within the year.

Where else in the world could he have gone? 

He seems to have been aiming for asylum in a South American country, probably Ecuador, much as [WikiLeaks founder] Julian Assange has obtained asylum in the Ecuadorian embassy in London.

Can the United States extradite him from Russia? 

They can certainly try. They will have to indict him as a criminal, and argue for his extradition on those grounds. He has certainly done damage to U.S. security. It is important to distinguish between any information that he might have with him, and his claims about what he could do under Prism or XKeyscore. As things stand, I have no way of assessing the difference. But I am sure that this is one of the things that the U.S. will seek to determine. With any wisdom, they will seek the help of the Russians in doing so.

What will happen once his one-year stay in Russia concludes?

Within that time frame the U.S. and Russia will likely have worked out some understanding of what he has done. He might be extradited to the U.S. He might flee to another nation using a Russian passport. I expect that sooner or later he will stand trial in the United States.

How has all of this impacted Russia’s reputation on the world stage? 

From an American standpoint, it has severely compromised Russia’s image. It is one more irritant in a series of disagreements, with Syria and Iran being prior major irritants. For other nations with other interests regarding Russia, it will remind them that Russia will act autonomously and along a variety of dimensions. For example: in one area, say energy, it will conduct its affairs one way, and in another, such as Snowden, it will act another way. [Other countries] may seek to express sympathy with the U.S., since something like Snowden could have happened to any one of them. But they will maintain their own ties with Russia.

Russia would be well advised to explain and justify its actions with regard to Snowden. He has gone to a “secure” location, which may prove to be something like being under house arrest. He is simply too sensitive a problem to allow him free access to whomever and wherever he would like. This may not avert reprisals from the U.S. with regard to the G20 summit and such, but it may open the path to a timely resolution of the issue. Vladimir Putin is right: Snowden is not as important as Russia’s relationship with the United States.